Matchday 34: Where the Points Are Hiding
The Round in One Minute
Matchday 34 splits cleanly into two stories: title-chasing sides with everything to play for, and mid-table clubs with nothing left to lose. That combination usually produces goals — and chaos for fantasy managers who only chase the obvious names.
Our model flags four fixtures with an expected-goals swing above 1.4. If you are chasing rank in a mini-league, those are the games to target first — not necessarily the ones on television.
Captain Tier List
Tier S — Harry Kane: Home fixture, 0.94 xG per 90 over the last six weeks, and opponents conceding the second-most big chances in the league. Safe, high-ceiling, boring in the best possible way.
Tier A — Serhou Guirassy: Leverkusen face a back line missing its starting centre-back pairing. Guirassy has scored in four of his last five home appearances. Less ownership than Kane, similar upside.
Tier B — Florian Wirtz: The differential play. Wirtz creates 4.1 chances per 90 and draws fouls in the final third — a bonus-point profile that can explode even without a goal.
Value Picks Under €8M
Pascal Groß (€7.5M) remains the budget midfielder with the steadiest floor: corners, penalties, and a team that presses high enough to recover loose balls in the box.
David Raum (€7.8M) is the full-back pick when Leipzig rotate in midfield but keep their width. Two assists in three matchdays is not a fluke — it is the system.
Nick Woltemade (€6.8M) has quietly become Stuttgart's focal point. At this price he is still a template player in fewer than 12% of squads. That gap will close fast.
Before You Hit Confirm
Check press conferences on Friday afternoon. Rotation risk is elevated for clubs with European hangover — especially Dortmund and Frankfurt. In Pro, our injury alerts push lineup changes within minutes of official team sheets.
One final rule: do not chase last week's hero. The managers who climb in May are the ones who plan two matchdays ahead, not the ones who react to a single highlight reel.